According to an article at Cleantechblog by Neal Dikeman, electric vehicle sales have exploded out of the starting gate at three times the sprint that hybrids did when they were first introduced.
Neal Dikeman is a founding partner of a cleantech merchant bank and is one of the main bloggers for Cleantechblog. He mentions that he’s been researching sales numbers of EVs and comparing them to hybrid sales. It took six years, he notes, for US hybrids to sell 100,000 a year and hit 1% market penetration. All electrics are on pace to hit that either this year or sometime in 2014.
That means EVs will have reached 1% market penetration years ahead of hybrids. In fact, Neal claims that the rate they’re outperforming hybrids in sales are constantly rising as well. Four EV models are selling at rates that took hybrids a decade to reach.
Dikeman goes on to predict that, based on the numbers he’s looking at, he believes that electric vehicles will number about 4.1 million units in 10 years. However, that will only mean a 6-7% market share. Enough that companies will be making money off the lines, but hardly an overnight change in all driving habits. However Dikeman does welcome “discussion, predictions and inputs on what reasonable expectations on EV growth are” in case anyone sees a flaw in his math.
For example, higher gas costs, or cheaper electricity, could change the math that goes into people’s decisions about what kind of car to purchase.